The answer includes much more than just the banner discussion. The reason is more technical due to ranking factors relating to Core Web Vitals. They can also be affected by popup banners, which eventually affect your rankings.
Core Web Vitals
In his response, John Mueller references two aspects related to the Core Web Vitals metrics. Therefore, it is important to define these two aspects first before jumping to his answer.
Cumulative Layout Shift
Largest Contentful Paint
Cumulative Layout Shift (CLS)
Cumulative Layout Shift is a Core Web Vitals metric that evaluates how the layout of a website page changes while loading. The main factors that influence the metric include fonts and images and images that load slowly may cause the words to shift towards the bottom, and Fonts that take a long time to load may cause the content of the webpage to shift.
Largest Contentful Paint
Largest Contentful Paint, aka LCP, can be described as a metric that measures the amount of time it takes for a site to load the largest content blocks (image or text) starting at the site starts to load.
Page Layout Algorithm
Google introduced an algorithm in 2012 that was dubbed The Page Layout Algorithm, also called the Top Heavy Algorithm. The goal of this ranking-related factor was to reduce the ranking of websites that display obtrusive popups.
Can Ranking Get Affected by Popup Banners?
The person who asked the question was interested in knowing only one thing. Whether ten years since the Page Layout Algorithm was introduced, popups can still influence rankings?
“Could my rankings be influenced by a banner popping up on my page?”
John Mueller answered:
“And Yes, they can be, too. Various factors influence the way banners are displayed on web pages. On the one hand, in the Page Experience Report, we deal with intrusive interstitials. If this banner is perceived as an intrusive interstitial, this could harm the website.
Another issue is that you can experience adverse effects on cumulative layout shifts when banners are used. Ex. How the page renders when it’s loaded. Or about the LCP – the part of Core Web Vitals.
This means that various elements could be in play in this scenario. This doesn’t mean that it has to be this way, and it’s just a matter of what kind of banner you’re putting up; it could happen.”
Multiple Factors for Ranking that Get Affected by Popup Banners
The current situation is more complex than an intrusive popup with negative rankings. A less intrusive popup banner can still result in an adverse ranking impact. Why? Due to its impact on Core Web Vitals such as CLS and LCP.
If your ranking is affected by popup banners, you should focus on your technical SEO. You can leverage the search console bubble chart to understand your website in detail and correct its flaws.